North Africa’s Role in Europe’s Green Energy Transition

Europe’s shift towards greener energy is accelerating, with North Africa set to play a pivotal role. As Europe boosts its reliance on clean energy, new solar and wind capacities, lower power demand, and a resurgence in hydropower and nuclear energy have all contributed to its greener power mix.

Rystad Energy predicts that by 2035, 73% of Europe’s electricity will be sourced from renewable energy, with North Africa potentially supplying up to 24 gigawatts (GW) of power through subsea interconnectors. This connection would ensure a stable stream of clean power to Europe.

At present, Morocco is the only African nation directly connected to Europe, with two high-voltage cables running to Spain, each carrying 700 megawatts (MW). A third cable is in development and will complement large-scale initiatives like the Xlinks UK-Morocco project.

Xlinks aims to establish 11.5 GW of renewable capacity, supported by 22.5 gigawatt-hours (GWh) of battery energy storage and a 3.6 GW subsea link between the UK and Morocco.

Other significant projects include the GREGY interconnection between Greece and Egypt, and the ELMED-TUNITA project between Tunisia and Italy, both of which have drawn substantial investment from governments and financial institutions.

Once these initiatives are completed, North Africa will require around 7.2 GW of interconnector capacity and 23 GW of renewable power installations, consisting of 13.5 GW of solar photovoltaic (PV) and 9.5 GW of onshore wind, requiring an estimated US$27.5 billion in investments.

If all generated power is transferred to Europe, these connections could supply 55 terawatt-hours (TWh) annually, equating to 1.6% of Europe’s total power generation—potentially displacing around 6% of Europe’s fossil fuel-based energy.

Nivedh Das Thaikoottathil, Senior Analyst of Renewables & Power Research at Rystad Energy, notes, “North Africa’s renewable energy potential aligns well with Europe’s aim to cut reliance on Russian gas. The geographic proximity makes it ideal for partnerships, with solar and wind projects linked by subsea cables across the Mediterranean.

Europe’s wind energy peaks in winter while North Africa’s solar power is strongest in summer, offering a balanced power supply.”

North Africa’s Energy Landscape

North Africa is fast becoming a significant player in the Mediterranean’s energy transition, producing over 400 TWh annually and boasting the highest electricity access rates on the African continent. The region has seen rapid progress in renewable energy, with more than 350 GW of onshore wind and solar PV projects in various stages of development.

While many are still in concept phase, the region’s current installed capacity of over 8 GW from solar and wind makes it a prime hub for renewable energy investments.

Technological advancements have made renewable energy cheaper in North Africa, with the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) for solar and wind power dropping below $50 per megawatt-hour (MWh) in recent years. This drop has been driven by projects such as Egypt’s Benban solar complex, the largest solar project in Africa, and Morocco’s Noor Ouarzazate, which was once the world’s largest solar thermal plant. These initiatives demonstrate North Africa’s potential to generate vast amounts of renewable energy.

Positioned in the Earth’s solar belt, North Africa’s solar panels are highly efficient, generating 4.8 to 5.6 kilowatt-hours (kWh) per kilowatt-peak (kWp) daily, compared to Europe’s 3.6 to 4.8 kWh per kWp.

Additionally, the region has strong wind potential, with average wind speeds of 7 to 10 meters per second. These favorable conditions contribute to more consistent capacity factors for both solar PV and onshore wind in North Africa than in southern Europe.

Challenges Facing North Africa’s Energy Transition

While the region shows great potential, North Africa faces several challenges in realizing its renewable energy ambitions. One major hurdle is the lack of local manufacturing capacity for the components needed for solar and wind energy projects.

Currently, North Africa relies heavily on imports, which exposes it to supply chain disruptions and price volatility. This dependence could slow the progress of renewable energy projects unless local production capabilities improve.

Another pressing issue is the availability of high-voltage direct current (HVDC) and extra-high-voltage (EHV) subsea cables. Europe currently produces over half of the world’s HVDC cables, with around 9,000 kilometers in circulation globally. However, Rystad Energy projects that demand for these cables will far exceed supply by 2030, with the need for subsea interconnectors and offshore wind export cables driving a demand of more than 75,000 kilometers. This supply-demand gap could force European firms to increase production or rely on Asian manufacturers.

Moreover, financing these ambitious projects poses another challenge. Many North African initiatives are still in their early development stages, and delays could arise from supply chain constraints or financial difficulties.

For instance, HVDC cable production requires coordination among multiple suppliers and contractors, and any disruptions could extend project timelines. Timely collaboration across the region will be crucial to keep these projects on track.

The Future of Europe-North Africa Energy Collaboration

Despite these challenges, North Africa is well-positioned to play a critical role in Europe’s energy transition. Its strategic location and abundant renewable resources make it an ideal partner for Europe’s push towards a greener energy future.

As the two regions work together to expand subsea interconnections and develop renewable projects, the power partnership between Europe and North Africa is set to strengthen.

This collaboration not only helps Europe diversify its energy sources but also provides North African countries with new economic opportunities. Renewable energy investments will create jobs, boost local economies, and reduce the region’s reliance on fossil fuels, fostering long-term sustainability.

By overcoming supply chain bottlenecks and addressing financing challenges, North Africa can become a key player in the global energy transition. As Europe continues to reduce its reliance on fossil fuels, North Africa’s vast solar and wind potential will be crucial in meeting the continent’s renewable energy goals.