Energy Demand To Increase With the Covid-19 Endemic Transition

As Malaysia transitions into an endemic phase, a recovery in the demand for utilities can be expected. The sector is currently being weighed down by the surge in global fuel prices as well as uncertainty in government policies, but the risks are still manageable.

Companies such as Tenaga Nasional Bhd (TNB) and Petronas Gas Bhd (PetGas) are being protected under the regulated asset base (RAB) mechanisms, said Hong Leong Investment Bank Research.

It noted that the government would remain committed to sustaining the RAB mechanism over the longer term to instill investors’ confidence in its policy. The research house has maintained its “buy’’ call on both TNB, PetGas and YTL Power International Bhd with target prices of RM13.60, RM19.00 and 75 sen respectively. This is based on the companies’ stable earnings and sustainable dividend payouts, it explained.

For the sector as a whole, the research house has an “overweight’’ stance.

The research house said governments globally are facing the energy trilemma as there is a need to balance between energy security, energy accessibility and environmental sustainability.

The recent Europe energy crisis has heightened the awareness of achieving the right balance and accelerated investments into research and development to develop more viable alternative resources.

The Energy Commission, with TNB, has developed a long-term strategy to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050.

The research house reckons that the roadmap is realistic and achievable as Malaysia should only gradually phase out coal generation given that current renewable energy (RE) technologies are not viable yet to fully replace coal generation.

Gas costs are also higher than coal, thereby raising inflationary pressures and political concerns.

It said while the environmental, social and governance is an important factor in view of the global climate change phenomenon, a comprehensive plan would still be needed to ensure smooth transitioning of more RE mix into the grid system.

The plan would need to safeguard reliability of the grid, taking into account risk of supply shock (geopolitical issues and logistics) as well as under-performance of generation source (affected by weather conditions and operational breakdown).

There is a need for a diversified type of energy generation, well-spread location of generation and diversified sourcing of energy and fuel, it said.

It added that worldwide governments and large enterprises should dedicate more resources into accelerating research and development of alternative energy.

This is in order to improve viability of REs, diversify energy resources and keep overall energy costs within acceptable levels.