According to a long-term forecast by Yakov & Partners, the share of electricity in global primary energy consumption is projected to increase from 26% in 2022 to 37% by 2050. This growth will be primarily driven by the expansion of electric transportation.
Additionally, significant contributions will come from the electrification of low- and medium-temperature industrial processes, advancements in electrolysis technologies for hydrogen production, and a rising demand for air conditioning systems in residential areas.
These trends are already becoming evident. The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts that global sales of electric passenger cars and plug-in hybrids will grow by 35% to 13.8 million units in 2023, increasing their share of new passenger car sales from 14% to 18%.
In 2022, global electricity demand from electric cars and plug-in hybrids more than doubled, reaching 97 TWh, which is comparable to Kazakhstan’s annual electricity consumption of 112 TWh in 2023. This surge in demand is partly due to the rapid development of charging infrastructure, with the number of publicly available charging stations increasing by over 40% to 3.9 million units in 2023, including 1.4 million fast charging stations and 2.5 million slow charging ones.
In the U.S., the impact of electric vehicles on energy demand is clear. By the end of 2023, electricity consumption by electric passenger cars surpassed that of rail transport for the first time (7.6 TWh vs. 6.8 TWh). The West Coast states (California, Oregon, Washington) accounted for 40% of the electricity demand for ground-based light-duty electric vehicles in 2023, with another quarter coming from the Mid-Atlantic (New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania) and South Atlantic states (Delaware, Florida, Georgia, Maryland, North and South Carolina, Virginia, West Virginia). Electric vehicles represented 0.18% of U.S. electricity consumption in 2023, and this figure is expected to grow rapidly in the coming years.
Electrification is also transforming other economic sectors, including the service sector. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) reports that the share of electricity in primary energy consumption by commercial real estate in the U.S. increased from 38% to 61% between 1979 and 2018, while the share of fuel oil decreased from 14% to 1% and natural gas from 44% to 34% (thermal energy remained at 4%). This shift is largely due to the transition to electric heating in office buildings, the development of air conditioning systems, and the digitalization of workplaces.
There remains significant potential for electrification in industries, especially in developing countries. According to Ember, the aluminum industry in India had an 80.1% share of electricity in its energy consumption structure in 2022, while the cement (10%), petrochemical (10%), and steel (8.5%) industries had much lower levels of electrification.
The steel sector, in particular, can increase its electrification by switching from oxygen-converter furnaces, which require coking coal, to arc steel-making plants that utilize the thermal effect of electric arcs.
Despite these developments, transportation will continue to be the primary driver of global electrification in the coming decades. Yakov & Partners forecast an average annual growth in electricity demand of 9% in the transportation sector up to 2050, compared to 1% in the industrial sector, 2% in the residential sector, and 6% in other sectors.
