‘Aviation Lags in Shifting to A Lower Carbon Business Model’

As the global economy slowly but surely shifts to a lower-carbon model, some of the most intractable industries – steel and cement, for example – have moved faster than anyone could have imagined, while new solutions such as hydrogen are scaling up rapidly.

One sector, though, is lagging behind: aviation. The sector accounts for about 2.8% of global CO2 emissions, with a further impact from non-CO2 greenhouse gases because most of its emissions are made at altitude. What is more worrying, though, is that emissions from flying have risen by 2% a year since the turn of the century and they could reach a fifth of total emissions by 2050.

There are a number of reasons for this. Partly it is the laws of physics: it is hard to find a fuel or power source that is sufficiently energy-dense, yet also light enough, to replace kerosene, especially on long-haul flights, according to a Reuters analysis.

Another reason is the laws of man – or lack of them. “The aviation sector has been under-regulated and undertaxed for decades, which is why low-carbon technology has been slow to come to market,” says Jo Dardenne, aviation manager at Transport & Environment, a Brussels-based non-governmental organisation (NGO).

The 1944 Convention on International Civil Aviation, better known as the Chicago Convention and introduced to help the industry grow in a post-war world, makes it difficult for governments to tax aviation fuel.

“The industry says international aviation emissions should always be regulated at international level, but airlines didn’t go to ICAO (the International Civil Aviation Organization) for bailouts during the pandemic, but to national governments,” she adds.

“There is now more of a view that if they have been helped by the government, they should have to contribute to the government budget and the fight against climate change.”

Sentiment towards the industry, and within it, is starting to change – slowly, though. There is a growing feeling that it is unfair that aviation is not taxed when other activities are, not least because 1% of people cause 50% of global aviation emissions, according to Transport & Environment.

“It was a crucial driver for the gilet jaune protests in France,” Dardenne points out. “People were asking why they were paying tax to drive and heat their homes, when airlines were not paying tax.”

In advance of the COP26 climate conference in Glasgow, Scotland, last November, the sector committed to achieve net-zero carbon emissions by 2050, which it said would be “supported by accelerated efficiency measures, energy transition and innovation across the aviation sector and in partnership with governments around the world”.

The industry is largely pinning its hopes on sustainable aviation fuels (SAF), which are made from sources such as biomass or municipal waste.

“SAF is where the future lies,” says Dardenne. “It’s the only way the industry can continue to grow. However, we can’t expect a sufficient amount of SAF to be available until the mid-2030s. Aviation fuel will still be 95% fossil fuel-based in 2030.”

Members of ICAO set up the Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (CORSIA) as long ago as 2016, but Dardenne says “there are so many flaws in CORSIA – in principle, in practice and in implementation. Fundamentally, it’s an offsetting scheme. It’s like saying you will lose weight and pay someone else to go to the gym for you.”

Many critics feel that CORSIA, which came into effect in January 2021, five years after the scheme was created, sums up the industry’s approach to tackling climate change – too little, too late. The German Aerospace Centre says that while the CORSIA targets can mitigate the increased climate impact of air transport, the current measures will not be enough to help limit temperature rises to 1.5C.

Nonetheless, aviation has already made progress. It has been becoming more efficient by 1% a year since the 1980s and the sector believes it can double that, cutting the amount of energy it uses by 2% every year, says Manosij Ganguli, head of mobility decarbonisation at the Energy Transitions Commission.

Jason McClain, senior director in ventures and innovation strategies at Boeing, says that aircraft makers are taking a portfolio approach across different time horizons. In the short term, a range of different technologies are being applied to new aircraft, which are much less polluting than their predecessors. “Every new generation of aircraft has a 15-25% efficiency improvement over the previous one. But there is more focus on this now, and we’re looking to bend that curve still further.”

Multiple technologies are being tested by engine and airframe manufacturers, from fin design and turbo props in engines, to LED lights in cabins and seats made from aluminium, which reduce weight and therefore fuel consumption.

A number of manufacturers are developing electric aircraft, including Siemens, Airbus and Rolls-Royce, which has built a battery-powered plane that can fly at more than 300mph. United Airlines in the United States plans to have electric aircraft in service by 2026. However, the 100 19-seater vehicles, supplied by Swedish startup Heart Aerospace, will be used only for short flights.

U.S. startup Wright Electric plans to unveil a 100-seat plane by the same date, and it is set to deliver an electric commercial passenger jet with a range of 800 miles to enter service by 2030.